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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 25

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(3:55) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short left to 38-K.Barner [50-K.Wright].

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.40 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 35, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model