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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 28

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(9:51) 7-B.Walsh 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.71 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 28, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 38, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model