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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 40

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(5:48) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short middle to 88-T.Burton [54-B.Wagner].

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.36 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 40, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.16 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model