Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 16 at the 66

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

(3:37) 9-J.Ryan punts 45 yards to PHI 21, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.85 EP
74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 66, worth -3.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model