4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 75

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(2:16) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 30-C.Clement pushed ob at PHI 48 for 23 yards (30-B.McDougald).

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
What Happened
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.19 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 75, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 32, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model