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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 77

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 9-J.Ryan punts 42 yards to PHI 35, Center-69-T.Ott. 38-K.Barner to PHI 35 for no gain (23-N.Thorpe).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.38 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 77, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 34, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model