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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 14 at the 50

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(3:08) 8-D.Jones punts 37 yards to SEA 13, Center-45-R.Lovato. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 15 for 2 yards (30-C.Clement).

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.42 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 50, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -1.69 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model