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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 55

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:53) 9-B.Anger punts 0 yards to TB 45, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 35-J.Whitehead to TB 45 for no gain (59-D.Bond). K.Fackrell deflected the punt.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.72 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 55, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 16, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model