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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 56

Green Bay Packers 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:09) 8-J.Vogel punts 42 yards to TB 14, Center-61-B.Goode. 10-A.Humphries ran ob at TB 25 for 11 yards (50-B.Martinez). PENALTY on TB-36-R.McClain, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 24.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.91 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 56, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP