Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 12 at the 96

Green Bay Packers 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:32) 8-J.Vogel punts 57 yards to TB 39, Center-61-B.Goode. 10-A.Humphries pushed ob at TB 40 for 1 yard (35-J.Whitehead). PENALTY on TB-45-A.Cross, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 39.

The Three Options

GO -3.57 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.78 EP
65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 96, worth -5.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model