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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 12

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(14:33) 7-P.Murray 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model