4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 70

Green Bay Packers 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(13:15) 8-J.Vogel punts 50 yards to TB 20, Center-61-B.Goode. 10-A.Humphries to TB 22 for 2 yards (83-J.Janis).

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 28, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model