Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 82

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Green Bay Packers 20

(:54) 9-B.Anger punts 46 yards to GB 36, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 11-T.Davis to GB 38 for 2 yards (16-F.Martino, 32-J.Rodgers).

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.65 EP
68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 82, worth -3.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model