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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 19

Green Bay Packers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:34) 2-M.Crosby 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-J.Vogel.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.23 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model