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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 73

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:43) 9-B.Anger punts 47 yards to GB 26, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model