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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 35

Dallas Cowboys 3 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(9:45) 5-D.Bailey 53 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.98 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 35, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • 61% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 45, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP