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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 73

Dallas Cowboys 10 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(14:14) 6-C.Jones punts 42 yards to NYG 31, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-38-J.Heath.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.55 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 73, worth -4.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 31, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP