4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 61

New York Giants 10 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(12:44) 9-B.Wing punts 46 yards to DAL 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 10-R.Switzer to DAL 22 for 7 yards (51-Z.DeOssie).

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.16 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 61, worth -3.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 20, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP