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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 73

New York Giants 10 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(9:40) 9-B.Wing punts 55 yards to DAL 18, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 10-R.Switzer to DAL 28 for 10 yards (29-N.Berhe). PENALTY on DAL-41-K.Smith, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 28.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.55 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 73, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 31, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model