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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 46

New York Giants 10 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(4:42) 9-B.Wing punts 34 yards to DAL 12, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-41-D.Rodgers-Cromartie.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.10 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.83 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model