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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 3

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(7:18) 5-D.Bailey 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.64 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 3, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP