4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 71

Detroit Lions 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:14) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to TB 21, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.03 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP