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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 71

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(11:19) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 48 yards to DET 23, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 13-T.Jones MUFFS catch, touched at DET 23, ball out of bounds at DET 26.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.77 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 71, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 29, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP