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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 49

Detroit Lions 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:34) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.06 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.63 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model