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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 42

Detroit Lions 21 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

What Actually Happened

(4:56) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 27 yards to TB 15, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.03 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.82 EP
KICK -0.44 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model