Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 68

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21 – Detroit Lions 21

(3:06) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to DET 24, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 13-T.Jones to DET 23 for -1 yards (12-C.Godwin).

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.52 EP
66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 68, worth -3.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model