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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 28

Detroit Lions 21 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

What Actually Happened

(:25) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +1.15 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.81 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 38, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model