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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 95

Buffalo Bills 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(2:16) 6-C.Schmidt punts 40 yards to BUF 45, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-42-P.DiMarco.

The Three Options

GO -3.03 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.54 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 95, worth -5.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -2.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 53, worth -2.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model