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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 55

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(13:13) 2-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to BUF 8, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-28-C.Milton.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.82 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 55, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP