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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 73

Buffalo Bills 7 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(9:07) 6-C.Schmidt punts 48 yards to IND 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-30-L.Pitts.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 73, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 31, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model