Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 71

Buffalo Bills 7 – Indianapolis Colts 0

(4:21) 6-C.Schmidt punts 33 yards to IND 38, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.66 EP
52% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 71, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model