Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 62

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

(3:20) 2-R.Sanchez punts 42 yards to BUF 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-28-C.Milton.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.63 EP
67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 62, worth -3.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model