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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 30

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(14:51) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 80-C.Rogers (23-M.Hyde). Receiver and coverage along sideline at BUF 15.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.03 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.58 EP
  • 71% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 40, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model