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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 56

Buffalo Bills 7 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(11:18) 6-C.Schmidt punts 35 yards to IND 21, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 80-C.Rogers to IND 23 for 2 yards (30-L.Pitts).

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.78 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 56, worth -2.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 17, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model