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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 38

Buffalo Bills 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(9:49) J.Webb in at QB (N.Peterman at WR). (Shotgun) 14-J.Webb pass incomplete short right to 85-C.Clay (32-T.Green). Receiver and coverage along sideline at IND 35.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.86 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 38, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.20 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 47, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT +0.54 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model