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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 36

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(3:57) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles right end pushed ob at BUF 28 for 8 yards (28-E.Gaines).

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.42 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 36, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +0.36 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model