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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 15

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(2:25) 4-A.Vinatieri 33 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.20 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 15, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model