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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 80

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(10:51) 2-R.Sanchez punts 35 yards to BUF 45, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-26-C.Geathers.

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.96 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 80, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.21 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 37, worth -2.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model