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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 56

New England Patriots 0 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(11:21) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 42 yards to MIA 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-29-J.Bademosi.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.17 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 56, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 17, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.77 EP