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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 28

New England Patriots 7 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(:06) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +2.48 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 28, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 38, worth -0.22 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model