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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 71

New England Patriots 10 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(9:12) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 53 yards to MIA 18, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.21 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 71, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 29, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP