Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 15 at the 80

Miami Dolphins 27 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(:46) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 56 yards to NE 24, Center-92-J.Denney. 17-B.Reedy to NE 32 for 8 yards (59-C.Allen). PENALTY on MIA-21-J.Lucas, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NE 32.

The Three Options

GO -2.88 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
73% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 80, worth -4.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model