Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 78

Miami Dolphins 27 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(12:00) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 53 yards to NE 25, Center-92-J.Denney. 17-B.Reedy ran ob at NE 48 for 23 yards. PENALTY on NE-23-P.Chung, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 25. Penalty on NE-50-N.Grigsby, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.64 EP
59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 78, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model