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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 55

Miami Dolphins 27 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(8:01) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 41 yards to NE 14, Center-92-J.Denney. 80-D.Amendola to NE 19 for 5 yards (45-M.Hull).

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.36 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 55, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model