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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 55

Miami Dolphins 27 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(2:33) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 43 yards to NE 12, Center-92-J.Denney. 80-D.Amendola to NE 23 for 11 yards (34-S.Perry; 78-T.Fede).

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.25 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 55, worth -0.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP