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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 15 at the 15

New England Patriots 17 – Miami Dolphins 27

What Actually Happened

(:57) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.38 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 15, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +2.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model