Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 58

Atlanta Falcons 10 – New Orleans Saints 17

(4:32) 5-M.Bosher punts 34 yards to NO 24, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.05 EP
72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 58, worth -3.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model