Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 13 at the 71

New Orleans Saints 17 – Atlanta Falcons 17

(7:53) 6-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to ATL 28, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.95 EP
67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 71, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model