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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 24

New Orleans Saints 17 – Atlanta Falcons 20

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 9-D.Brees right guard to ATL 22 for 2 yards (36-K.Ishmael).

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +3.54 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 34, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model