Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 75

Atlanta Falcons 3 – New Orleans Saints 3

(1:22) 5-M.Bosher punts 49 yards to NO 26, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.81 EP
50% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 75, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model